article 12-31-2016

Royce Global Value Trust Manager Commentary

Portfolio Manager Chuck Royce and Assistant Portfolio Managers David Nadel and Chris Flynn believe cyclicals look well-positioned for ongoing leadership. In addition to their usual cyclical tilt, they are looking in some defensive areas such as healthcare. Selections are very much on a stock-by-stock basis, with a focus on individual companies that combine attractive valuations with strong fundamentals.

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Fund Performance

Royce Global Value Trust advanced 11.1% on a net asset value ("NAV") basis and 9.8% on a market price basis compared to a gain of 11.5% for its unleveraged benchmark, the Russell Global Small Cap Index, for the same period. This was a solid absolute result, though it disappointed on a relative basis. U.S. small-caps were very strong in 2016, in contrast to their international cousins.

The Fund's lower exposure to U.S. companies than the index, therefore, was a factor in its slight relative disadvantage for the calendar year. Investors in non-U.S. small-caps generally showed more favor to commodity-based international small-cap companies—oil & gas as well as metals & mining were among the top performers—than they did to the kind of businesses that we seek: small- and mid-cap stocks (those with market caps up to $10 billion) with high returns on invested capital or those with strong fundamentals and/or prospects trading at what Royce believes are attractive valuations.

During the first half of 2016, the Fund was up 3.9% on an NAV basis and 2.0% based on market price versus a 1.4% gain for the global small-cap index. Both the Fund and its benchmark showed even more life in the third quarter as many stocks bounced back or stabilized following Brexit-bred volatility. RGT was up 6.3% in the third quarter (while increasing 6.9% based on its market price) compared to a gain of 8.3% for the Russell Global Small Cap Index.

During the fourth quarter, however, many international small-caps declined, which had a larger impact on RGT. The Fund increased 0.6% based on its NAV (and 0.7% based on market price) in the year's final quarter compared to a 1.5% advance for the benchmark. A portion of RGT's second-half lag can be traced to currency effects. The rising U.S. dollar was particularly strong against the British pound, which declined significantly in the wake of the Brexit vote, making things difficult for the Fund's sizable investments in the U.K.

What Worked... And What Didn't

Eight of the portfolio's 10 equity sectors finished 2016 in the black. The most significant contributions came from Materials, Financials, Information Technology, and Industrials, which made a much larger impact than the remaining four contributing sectors. Health Care detracted—it was the only sector in the Russell Global Small Cap with a negative return in 2016—while Telecommunication Services was basically flat.

We think the global markets continue to offer terrific potential in a number of sectors and regions to find the kind of underappreciated, fundamentally solid companies that have long been our focus here at Royce. In our view cyclicals both in and outside the U.S. look well-positioned for ongoing leadership.

Four industries had a substantial positive impact in 2016: metals & mining (Materials), electronic equipment, instruments & components (Information Technology), capital markets (Financials), and machinery (Industrials). The effect of detracting industries was comparatively modest. Pharmaceuticals (Health Care) detracted most by a sizable margin, followed by technology hardware, storage & peripherals (Information Technology), and oil, gas & consumable fuels (Energy).

The Fund's top contributor at the position level was Genworth MI Canada, one of that country's leading residential mortgage insurance providers. Its stock first began to rebound with consecutive quarters of improved operating results. The recovery of energy prices also helped as about 20% of Genworth's policies are written in resource-rich Alberta. The company then announced solid results for its fiscal third quarter in November. We reduced our position in 2016. Pan American Silver was part of a group of both precious and industrial metals companies that came back strong in 2016 as commodity prices rose.

The portfolio's top detractor at the position level was Virbac, a French firm that makes vaccines, antibiotics, and other veterinary medications. Its shares suffered mostly from the negative results of a 2014 FDA investigation of its U.S. plant in St. Louis that were released earlier this year. In December 2016, however, the FDA rescinded the warning letter, leaving the status of Virbac's U.S. operations where they were at the beginning of the year, which allowed its shares to begin to recover. It was a top-40 holding in the Fund at the end of 2016. Value Partners Group is a Hong Kong-based asset manager that emphasizes value approaches. Subpar short-term performance, net outflows, and a CEO resignation all contributed to investors' concerns. Because we remain confident in its long-term prospects, particularly in China, as well as in its Chairman, who has assumed CEO responsibilities, we were comfortable holding our stake.

Relative to the Russell Global Small Cap, the Fund was hurt most by ineffective stock picking in the Industrials sector, most meaningfully in the machinery and commercial services & supplies industries. Stock selection was also an issue in Financials. Conversely, both our overweight and savvy stock picking gave us a relative edge in Materials while stock selection also helped in Information Technology.


Top Contributors to Performance
For 2016 (%)1

Genworth MI Canada 0.65
Pan American Silver 0.63
CETIP - Mercados Organizados 0.50
Quaker Chemical 0.46
Nanometrics 0.44
1 Includes dividends

Top Detractors from Performance
For 2016 (%)2

Virbac -0.54
Value Partners Group -0.46
Santen Pharmaceutical -0.40
Consort Medical -0.35
Clarkson -0.31
2 Net of dividends

Current Positioning and Outlook

At the end of 2016, the Fund's largest country weights were the U.S., the U.K., Japan, and Canada. We think the global markets continue to offer terrific potential in a number of sectors and regions to find the kind of underappreciated, fundamentally solid companies that have long been our focus here at Royce. In our view cyclicals both in and outside the U.S. look well-positioned for ongoing leadership.

In addition to our usual cyclical tilt, we are looking in some defensive areas such as healthcare. It is very much on a stock-by-stock basis, with a focus on individual companies that combine attractive valuations with strong fundamentals.

Average Annual Total Returns Through 12/31/16 (%)

  QTR* 1 YR SINCE INCEPT. DATE
Royce Global Value Trust NAV 0.65 9.77 -1.87 10/17/2013
Russell Global Small Cap 1.51 11.50 3.83 N/A

* Not Annualized

Important Performance and Expense Information 

All performance information reflects past performance, is presented on a total return basis, and reflects the reinvestment of distributions. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Current performance may be higher or lower than performance quoted. Returns as of the most recent month-end may be obtained at www.roycefunds.com. The Fund invests primarily in securities of small-cap and micro-cap companies, which may involve considerably more risk than investing in larger-cap companies. The Fund’s broadly diversified portfolio does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. From time to time, the Fund may invest a significant portion of its assets in securities of companies headquartered in foreign countries, which may be subject to different risks than investments in securities of U.S. companies, including adverse political, economic, currency and other risks not encountered in U.S. investments.

The Fund invests primarily in securities of small-cap and mid-cap companies, which may involve considerably more risk than investing in larger-cap companies. The Fund's broadly diversified portfolio does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. From time to time, the Fund may invest a significant portion of its net assets in foreign securities, which may involve political, economic, currency and other risks not encountered in U.S. investments.

Current month-end performance may be obtained at our Prices and Performance page.

Important Performance and Disclosure Information

The thoughts expressed in this piece concerning recent market movements and future prospects for small company stocks are solely the opinion of Royce at December 31, 2016, and, of course, historical market trends are not necessarily indicative of future market movements. Statements regarding the future prospects for particular securities held in the Funds' portfolios and Royce's investment intentions with respect to those securities reflect Royce's opinions as of December 31, 2016 and are subject to change at any time without notice. There can be no assurance that securities mentioned above will be included in any Royce-managed portfolio in the future. Regarding the “Top Contributors” and “Top Detractors” tables shown above, the sum of all contributors to, and all detractors from, performance for all securities in the portfolio would approximate the Fund’s year-to-date performance for 2016.

As of 12/31/16, Genworth MI Canada was 0.3% of the Fund's net assets, Pan American Silver was 0.5%, CETIP - Mercados Organizados was 0.5%, Quaker Chemical was 1.1%, Nanometrics was 1.1%, Virbac was 0.8%, Value Partners Group was 1.1%, Santen Pharmaceutical was 1.0%, Consort Medical was 0.8%, and Clarkson was 1.1%.

This material is not authorized for distribution unless preceded or accompanied by a current prospectus. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing or sending money. Smaller-cap stocks may involve considerably more risk than larger-cap stocks. (Please see "Primary Risks for Fund Investors" in the prospectus.)

Russell Investment Group is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Russell® is a trademark of Russell Investment Group. The Russell Global Small Cap Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of global small-cap stocks. Index returns include net reinvested dividends and/or interest income. The performance of an index does not represent exactly any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.

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